Blackout Lifted

Blackout Lifted Fearless Prediction #1

Let's get the rebirth of this blog going with a little NFL football. Free agency opened this weekend, the Scouting Combine wrapped up last week, and the Draft is nearly two months away (much more on that in future posts). But I'm ready to talk regular season, and in particular the schedule. The NFL usually releases full schedules for its upcoming seasons in late March-early April. But over the past several years the league has released the prime time games for opening weekend a few weeks before that. So here are my thoughts and predictions on how it will look for 2009.

For years now the NFL has kicked off its season the week after Labor Day weekend, and that trend should continue. Also, since 2002 the league has opened its season on the Thursday night after Labor Day, and since 2004 that game has featured the previous season's Super Bowl champion as the home team. This year that would likely mean the Pittsburgh Steelers would open the season on Thursday September 10, 2009 in a nationally televised game at Heinz Field. About the only thing that would prevent that is if MLB's Pittsburgh Pirates were scheduled to play at home that night in PNC Park, right next door to Heinz Field. That would create a logistical nightmare for both teams, leagues, and the city. But the Pirates aren't playing that day, so go ahead and book Opening Night to Pittsburgh.

Now comes the fun part......predicting the opponent. The broadcaster for Opening Night (NBC) will definitely want an attractive opponent for this game to ensure good ratings; and the NFL will certainly want the same. Pittsburgh's pre-determined home opponents are Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland, San Diego, Tennessee, Green Bay and Minnesota. 4 of those teams (Baltimore, San Diego, Tennessee, Minnesota) are playoff teams from last season. 2 others (Cincinnati, Cleveland) are AFC North division rivals. The remaining two (Oakland, Green Bay) struggled last season, but both teams have large national followings that could boost TV ratings.

To help narrow down the list, let's look at which of those teams will almost definitely open the season on the road becuse they either share a facility or are in close proximity to an MLB team that is scheduled to play at home on Opening Weekend. That would be Cleveland, Minnesota, and San Diego; although Qualcomm Stadium (Chargers) is several miles away from Petco Park (Padres) and traffic/parking at one facility shouldn't impact the other. Now alone that may not mean much, but consider that the NFL and MLB regular season schedules overlap for most of September, so NFL schedulers will almost certainly want to take advantage of open dates for teams that need to work around MLB schedules.....otherwise it is possible that a team could have to open it's season with as many as three straight road games, which would put the league in some major hot water with that team and its fan base. So let's look at the other teams on Pittsbugh's schedule that are impacted by MLB scheduling: Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Oakland. Baltimore vs Pittsburgh would be a very attractive Opening Night matchup, The Ravens will likely open with a home game because the Orioles are at home during NFL Week 2. Opening in Pittsburgh would mean the Ravens would not play their home opener until Week 3.....not unprecedented, but typically the NFL prefers not to do that. Same thing goes for Cincinnati and Oakland.....they would not be able to play a home game until Week 3. I think we can count all three of them out.

That leaves Cleveland, San Diego, Tennessee, Green Bay and Minnesota. Cleveland would not appear to be a good match, despite being Pittsbugh's oldest rival, because they tanked in 2008 and with a new GM and Coach appear to be in rebuilding mode. While Green Bay is a strong ratings pull, they only finished 6-10 last season and may not have high expectations for 2009. That leaves three finalists. At this point, it's almost anyone's guess. I'm going to go with Tennessee. The Titans and Steelers were the #'s 1 and 2 AFC playoff seeds last season, respectively and they are former division rivals. Plus, you have this little bit of side drama to add.




Fearless Prediction #1: NFL Opening Night 2009; September 10, 2009, 8:30pm ET on NBC; Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

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